A century of sea-ice past (modeled)

[Randi]

Here is a visualization of a century-long PIOMAS ice model run using reanalysis (ERA 20c) forcing. This is very much an ongoing experiment. We will be using the sea-ice observations gathered over the course of Old Weather (including RN) to get an idea how realistically the model is performing.

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/tests/piomas-20c



PIOMAS vs. thickness observations from MAUD drift of 1922-23. One indicator we're near the ballpark.

[Randi]

Another addition to the wall of 'This is important - please take notice'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38417198

'Dr Friederike Otto, a senior researcher at Oxford's Environmental Change Institute'

That's Fredi at work She works with Myles Allen who is leading Climatepredict.net (that lots of us do on BOINC).

It's all so depressing

Here is the daily resolution PIOMAS run, 1901-1910. Don't worry about the strange looking url - its verified. The online GIF animation tool generates them automatically (and possibly irreverently).

https://gfycat.com/CheapFloweryDorking

In due course we can plot all the daily positions of our ships in these model animations. This is an early attempt at using reanalyses to drive a sea-ice model, so results may vary as they say. But how cool will it be to see our ships in action?

Why is it that the sea ice reaches the 70th parallel (and often even further) along the Canadian and Siberian coasts most winters, but barely squeezes past the 80th parallel in the direction of Scandinavia? Is it different weather patterns, ocean currents, or simply the lack of any land?

I think you mean the embayment evident here https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ where the sea north of Scandinavia remains ice-free into the winter? You are right, this is caused by warm ocean currents flowing into the Barents Sea from the Atlantic. Also why Murmansk is such an important port for Russia, as it provides direct year-round access to the world ocean.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... f-sea-ice/

Here is a first cut comparing Bear 1913 sub-daily obs with the daily resolution PIOMAS model - and it ain't bad. The 'ice' positions look a little funny because they are interpolated to the center of the nearest model grid. But how cool is it that most obs are actually in the ballpark of a reanalysis-driven sea ice model? (The goofy url is bonafide.)

https://gfycat.com/SoftCavernousBlowfish

We are going to be doing some editing and re-navigating to maximize the data return, but we are now well along with the 20th c. series.